How A-Level predicted grades are set, why Year 13 mocks often come after your UCAS predictions are sent, and whether universities ever see mock results.
Usually not on their own. Your school or college sets your predicted grades, and the school policies we read base them mainly on end-of-Year 12 exams and your work across Year 12. Predictions must be final when your UCAS application is sent, and for 2027 entry the deadline for most courses is 13 January 2027, so January Year 13 mocks often come after your predictions have gone. UCAS doesn't ask you to enter mock results, and your offer depends on the A-Level grades you actually get.
What is a predicted grade, and who sets it?
UCAS defines a predicted grade as “the grade of qualification an applicant's school or college believes they're likely to achieve in positive circumstances”. It is a forecast, made by your teachers, of what you can get if things go well. Your school or college adds a predicted grade to your UCAS application for every qualification you are still studying, alongside your reference. Universities look at those predictions when they decide whether to make you an offer. If an offer is conditional, the place is yours only if your real results meet the grades in it. UCAS's guidance for schools says predictions should be achievable and based on evidence, such as past performance, internal assessments or current work. It also says they should be final by the time the application is submitted, because universities may only consider the predicted grades sent as part of the UCAS application.
How do schools usually work out predicted grades?
There is no single national rule. UCAS sets out principles, and each school or college decides its own process within them. Many schools publish theirs as a predicted grades statement or policy, so look on your school's website or ask your head of sixth form for it. Two published policies show how this can work. St Michael's Catholic Grammar School in Barnet says teachers base predictions primarily on end-of-Year 12 exams in April and May, because those exams are the closest match to real A-Level papers. A teacher can predict the grade you got in those exams or one grade higher, using evidence such as class tasks, homework, tests and earlier exams in Year 12, and never more than one grade higher. Ripley St Thomas Sixth Form says performance across Year 12 will strongly inform predictions, and tells students their predicted grades in July of Year 12. Both schools give one chance to move a prediction up in Year 13. Ripley St Thomas lets students request a review in the autumn term and sit an upgrade assessment in September, and says an upgrade is not automatic: there must be clear evidence of much better performance under timed conditions. St Michael's reviews predictions after its Year 13 November exams, for students who aren't applying to courses with the October deadline. So in schools like these, the exams that count most for predictions are the ones at the end of Year 12. A Year 13 mock only feeds in if it happens before your application is sent.
When are predicted grades sent to UCAS?
Your predictions go to UCAS with your application, so the timing depends on when your school sends it. These are UCAS's own dates for 2027 entry. You can still apply after an equal consideration date, but only applications that arrive by it are guaranteed to be considered, so ask the university whether it still has places first. Schools work to their own internal deadlines before these dates, so they have time to write references and check predictions. St Michael's, for example, tells students the outcome of any review by 2 December 2026. If your Year 13 mocks are in January, they usually come after your predictions have been set, and often after your application has gone. If you are in Year 12 now, check UCAS's dates page for your year of entry.
UCAS dates for 2027 entry
Date
What happens
1 September 2026
Completed applications can be sent to UCAS.
15 October 2026, 18:00 UK time
Equal consideration date for Oxford, Cambridge and most courses in medicine, dentistry and veterinary medicine or science.
13 January 2027, 18:00 UK time
Equal consideration date for most undergraduate courses.
30 June 2027, 18:00 UK time
Applications received by this time are sent on to universities and colleges. Clearing opens on 2 July.
Do universities see your mock results?
Not as a list of results on your application. Websites disagree on this: some say universities never see mocks, and others say you will have to declare them. UCAS's own guidance answers it.
The education section: UCAS asks you to enter all your previous and current qualifications, including ones you have completed, ones with a U grade and ones where you are still waiting for results. A mock is not a qualification, so there is no place for it, and UCAS doesn't ask you to declare it.
Your predicted grades: your school may use internal exams, including mocks, when it sets them. That is how a mock can shape your application without the score itself appearing.
Your reference: UCAS tells referees the first section can describe how the school predicts grades, for example from internal assessments, and the third can include evidence such as assessment scores. A teacher could mention a strong result there.
After you apply: UCAS says predictions should be final when the application is submitted. A mock you sit after that doesn't change the predictions universities already hold.
What happens if your mocks are much lower than your predictions?
If your application has gone, your predicted grades normally stay as they are. Some schools say so plainly: St Michael's says it never lowers a prediction once it has been issued, and won't raise one once an application has been sent. Your offers stand too, because they depend on your real A-Level results. That is where a low mock matters. It is an early warning about the exams that decide whether you meet your offer, with months left to act on it. Parents often ask whether a student can have a blip like this and still get their predicted grades. We searched and found no published data that tracks A-Level mock grades through to final results, so nobody can give you a reliable figure. What you can control is what you do next.
Get the paper back: ask for your marked script and the mark scheme, and look at where each mark went.
Sort the lost marks: knowledge, exam technique, timing or misreading. Each one needs a different fix.
Talk to your teacher: ask which two or three topics they would fix first, and whether the mock included anything you haven't been taught yet.
Check your insurance choice: UCAS suggests an insurance offer with lower conditions than your firm choice, at somewhere you would still be happy to go.
Often wrong, and more often too high than too low. These three sources are the ones we could check at the original.
UCAS (2025): around half of UK 18-year-olds were predicted AAA and above in 2025, compared with 26% of accepted applicants who secured AAA and above.
Murphy and Wyness (2020): using three years of UK university applications data, they found only 16% of applicants' predicted grades were accurate, and 75% of applicants were over-predicted. High-attaining students from disadvantaged backgrounds were more likely to get pessimistic predictions.
Gill and Benton (2015): teachers' forecasts for OCR A Levels in June 2014 were exactly right 43.14% of the time, too high 43.17% and too low 13.69%, and 88.10% were right or within one grade. These forecasts went to OCR in May, months after UCAS predictions, when teachers had more evidence.
What should you do in Year 12 and Year 13?
Work out which exam your school actually uses, then prepare for that one hardest. A prediction is a forecast for a good day, so treat yours as a grade to beat.
Year 12, now: find your school's predicted grades policy and the dates of your end-of-Year 12 exams. In schools like the two above, those exams do more for your predictions than any Year 13 mock.
Year 12, summer: sit those exams like the real thing, with timed full papers covering everything taught so far.
Year 13, autumn: if your school offers a review or upgrade test, ask how it works and when. St Michael's tells students to have the rest of the application, especially the personal statement, ready first, so a review doesn't hold it up.
Year 13, mocks: use them as a rehearsal for the exams that decide your offer. Sort every lost mark and fix the biggest gaps before the summer.
UCAS: Predicted grades, what you need to know for entry this year: UCAS's definition of a predicted grade, its principles for schools, and its 2025 figures comparing AAA predictions with AAA results. UCAS: References for UCAS applications: Who adds the reference and predicted grades to an application, for school applicants and independent applicants. UCAS: Registered centre linked applications, undergraduate references: The three sections of a reference, including how schools describe their prediction process and what supporting evidence referees can give. UCAS: Filling in your UCAS application: Which qualifications applicants must enter in the education section: completed, U grades and those still awaiting results. UCAS: Dates and deadlines for uni applications: The 2027 entry dates, including both equal consideration dates. UCAS: Replying to your offers: Firm and insurance choices, and why an insurance offer should have lower conditions. UCAS: Tariff points: How some universities use UCAS Tariff points in their entry requirements. St Michael's Catholic Grammar School: UCAS Predicted Grades Statement (May 2026): One school's published policy: predictions based mainly on end-of-Year 12 exams, a review after Year 13 November exams, and no changes once an application is sent. Ripley St Thomas Sixth Form: UCAS: Another school's process: predictions shared in July of Year 12, with a review and upgrade assessment early in Year 13. Tim Gill and Tom Benton, “The accuracy of forecast grades for OCR A levels in June 2014”, Cambridge Assessment Statistics Report Series No. 90 (2015): How often teachers' May forecasts for OCR A Levels matched the final grade, and how often they were too high or too low. Richard Murphy and Gill Wyness, “Minority report: the impact of predicted grades on university admissions of disadvantaged groups”, Education Economics (2020): Three years of UK applications data on how often predicted grades were accurate, over-predicted or under-predicted.
Do mock results go on your university application?
No. UCAS asks for qualifications you have completed or are still taking, and a mock isn't one. Your school may use mock results when it sets your predicted grades, and a teacher can mention internal assessment scores in your reference.
What happens if I do badly in my Year 12 mocks?
It depends on when they are and how your school uses them. If your school bases predictions on end-of-Year 12 exams, those are the ones to prepare for most, and an earlier mock is a chance to find gaps while there is time to fix them. Ask your teacher how your school sets predictions.
Can my predicted grades go down after a bad Year 13 mock?
Once your application has been sent, your predictions are normally fixed, because UCAS says they should be final at that point. Before you apply, it depends on your school's policy. Some schools say they never lower a prediction once they have told you it.
How are A-Level predicted grades calculated?
Each school decides its own method within UCAS's principles: predictions should be achievable and based on evidence such as past performance, internal assessments or current work. The two published school policies in this guide lean most on end-of-Year 12 exams, then allow a review or upgrade test early in Year 13.
When are Year 13 mocks?
Schools choose their own dates, so there is no national answer. Some hold Year 13 exams in November and others in January or later. Check your school calendar or ask your head of sixth form, and compare the date with your school's UCAS deadline.